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Aug 29, 2023

March 2023 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI)

BTS 22-23 The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the

BTS 22-23

The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, fell 4.1% in March from February, falling after a one month increase, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ (BTS). From March 2022 to March 2023 the index fell 4.3% (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).

Bureau of Transportation Statistics

The level of for-hire freight shipments in March measured by the Freight TSI (134.4) was 5.0% below the all-time high level of 141.5 in August 2022 (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data.

The February index was revised to 140.2 from 138.7 in last month's release.

BTS is withholding the scheduled release of the passenger and combined indexes for March, because air passenger travel continues to deviate from regular seasonal patterns, as it adjusts to the effects induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Air freight and waterborne for March are also statistical estimates. Since air freight and waterborne make up a smaller part of the freight index, the freight TSI is being released as scheduled with the air freight estimate included. The February passenger and combined indexes are available on the BTS website.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasonal movement, which enables month-to-month comparisons.

Analysis: The Freight TSI decreased in March due to seasonally adjusted decreases in rail intermodal, water, air freight, and trucking, while rail carload and pipeline grew.

The March decrease came in the context of mixed results for several other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production (IP) Index was up 0.4% in March, reflecting an increase of 8.4% in utilities while mining and manufacturing were each down 0.5%. Housing starts were down 0.8% while personal income increased by 0.3%.

The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index was down 1.4 points to 46.3, indicating continued contraction in manufacturing.

Although the March Passenger TSI is being withheld because of the previously cited difficulty of estimating airline passenger travel and other components, the February index is now being released. The index increased 2.7% from January to February. Seasonally adjusted transit, rail passenger and air passenger all increased.

The Passenger TSI has now exceeded its level in March 2020 —the first month of the pandemic— for 21 months in a row but remains below its pre-pandemic level (February 2020) for the 36th consecutive month.

Trend: The March freight index decrease was the largest decrease since the beginning of the COVID pandemic in April 2020. It followed a February increase and left the index 1.7% below the January level. This was the seventh decrease in nine months, for an overall decrease of 4.5% since June. It was the 8th month-over-month decrease in 19 months, for a total increase of 0.1% since August 2021. The March Freight TSI is 8.4% above the pandemic low in April 2020; it has increased in 20 of the 35 months since that low. The index is now 4.8% below its previous record level of 141.2 set in August 2019, despite increasing in 21 of the 44 months since that earlier peak.

For additional historical data, go to TSI data.

Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in March 2023 (134.4) were 41.5% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (95.0). The March 2023 level was 5.0% below the historic peak reached in August 2022 (141.5).

Year to date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were down 2.0% in March compared to the end of 2022 (Table 3).

Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are down 0.9% in the five years from March 2018 and are up 15.9% in the 10 years from March 2013 (Table 5).

Same month of previous year: March 2023 for-hire freight shipments were down 4.3% from March 2022 (Tables 4, 5).

1st quarter changes: The freight TSI fell 2.0% in the 1st quarter (Table 10).

The TSI has three seasonally adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the April 2023 index is scheduled for June 7, 2023.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month's data are added.

BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use the FRED database, which includes freight, passenger and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database. See TSI data on FRED.

For charts and discussion on the relationship of the TSI to the economy, see Transportation as an Economic Indicator: Transportation Services Index.

A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.

Table A: Summary of Revisions to Freight TSI in Previous 12 Months

Freight TSI

Current release

Previous month's release

Percent change

Mar-22

140.4

140.6

-0.14

Apr-22

139.5

139.4

0.07

May-22

140.2

140.1

0.07

Jun-22

140.7

140.6

0.07

Jul-22

140.3

140.2

0.07

Aug-22

141.5

141.5

0.00

Sep-22

141.4

141.4

0.00

Oct-22

140.4

140.4

0.00

Nov-22

137.4

137.4

0.00

Dec-22

137.1

137.7

-0.44

Jan-23

136.7

136.8

-0.07

Feb-23

140.2

138.7

1.08

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

NOTE: The entire Freight TSI is revised monthly. Changes shown only for the previous 12 months.

Table 1: Freight Transportation Services Index since September 2022 Percent Change from Previous Month(Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)

Freight

Index

Percent change

September

141.4

-0.1

October

140.4

-0.7

November

137.4

-2.1

December

137.1

-0.2

January

136.7

-0.3

February

140.2

2.6

March

134.4

-4.1

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 1A: Annual High and Low Points in Freight Transportation Services Index, 2009-2023

Year

Month of peak

Value at peak

Month of low

Value at low

2009

December

101.9

April

95.0

2019

August

141.2

December

136.2

2020

January

135.7

April

124.0

2021

December

137.7

February

133.8

2022

August

141.5

December

137.1

2023 (thru March)

February

140.2

March

134.4

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

Table 2: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2020-2023Percent change from previous month

2020

2021

2022

2023

Percent change

Percent change

Percent change

Percent change

January

-0.4

1.7

0.6

-0.3

February

0.0

-2.3

0.9

2.6

March

-1.3

1.6

0.4

-4.1

April

-7.5

1.0

-0.6

May

1.5

-0.4

0.5

June

2.2

-0.5

0.4

July

3.5

-0.9

-0.3

August

-1.1

-0.4

0.9

September

0.3

0.6

-0.1

October

0.6

1.3

-0.7

November

0.0

0.3

-2.1

December

1.4

0.3

-0.2

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

Table 2A: Freight Transportation Services Index by Month, 2020-2023

2020

2021

2022

2023

January

135.7

137.0

138.5

136.7

February

135.7

133.8

139.8

140.2

March

134.0

135.9

140.4

134.4

April

124.0

137.3

139.5

May

125.8

136.8

140.2

June

128.6

136.1

140.7

July

133.1

134.9

140.3

August

131.6

134.3

141.5

September

132.0

135.1

141.4

October

132.8

136.9

140.4

November

132.8

137.3

137.4

December

134.7

137.7

137.1

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

Table 3: Freight Transportation Services Index Year-to-Date Change, 2014-2023Percent change to March from December of the previous year

Year

Freight

2014

2.0

2015

-0.1

2016

0.0

2017

0.2

2018

1.3

2019

-0.7

2020

-1.6

2021

0.9

2022

2.0

2023

-2.0

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

Table 4: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-YearPercent Change in the March Freight TSI (Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

March Freight TSI

Percent change from same month previous year

2014

120.1

3.5

2015

123.1

2.5

2016

120.7

-1.9

2017

125.1

3.6

2018

135.6

8.4

2019

136.9

1.0

2020

134.0

-2.1

2021

135.9

1.4

2022

140.4

3.3

2023

134.4

-4.3

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 5: Freight Transportation Services Index from Previous Years Percent Change to 2023 (March to March)

Since March . . .

Duration in years

Freight TSI percent change to March 2023

2022

1

-4.3

2021

2

-1.1

2020

3

0.3

2019

4

-1.8

2018

5

-0.9

2017

6

7.4

2016

7

11.4

2015

8

9.2

2014

9

11.9

2013

10

15.9

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

Table 6: Freight Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 2014-2023Percent change from the last month of the previous quarter

Year

1st quarter (Jan-Mar) percent growth

2nd quarter (Apr-Jun) percent growth

3rd Quarter (Jul-Sep) percent growth

4th Quarter (Oct-Dec) percent growth

2014

2.0

-0.2

1.8

1.0

2015

-0.1

-1.1

1.5

-2.3

2016

0.0

2.2

-0.6

1.8

2017

0.2

0.8

2.5

3.6

2018

1.3

1.1

1.0

-0.5

2019

-0.7

0.0

0.6

-1.1

2020

-1.6

-4.0

2.6

2.0

2021

0.9

0.1

-0.7

1.9

2022

2.0

0.2

0.5

-3.0

2023

-2.0

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

Brief Explanation of the TSI The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries. The freight index measure changes in freight shipments while the passenger index measures changes in passenger travel.

The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy. The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The freight transportation index consists of: For-hire trucking, Railroad freight services (including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars), Inland waterways transportation, Pipeline transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and natural gas), and Air freight.

The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service. The passenger transportation index consists of: Local transit, Intercity passenger rail, and Passenger air transportation.

The index does not include intercity bus, sightseeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation.

The TSI includes only domestic "for-hire" freight and passenger transportation. For-hire transportation consists of freight or passenger transport services provided by a firm to external customers for a fee. The TSI does not include taxi services, paid ride services in personal motor vehicles (e.g., Uber, Lyft, etc.), intercity bus services, in-house transportation (vehicles owned and operated by private firms for their own use), or noncommercial passenger travel (e.g., trips in the household car).